Watch the AMA's daily COVID-19 update, with insights from AMA leaders and experts about the pandemic.
Featured topic and speakers
AMA Chief Experience Officer Todd Unger speaks with AMA Chief Health and Science Officer Mira Irons, MD, on the weekly numbers and trends in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths as states reopen across the country.
Learn more at the AMA COVID-19 resource center.
Speakers
- Mira Irons, MD, chief health and science officer, AMA
Transcript
Unger: Hello, this is the American Medical Association's COVID-19 update. Today, we're taking our weekly look at the numbers, trends and latest news about COVID-19 with AMA's Chief Health and Science Officer, Dr. Irons in Chicago. I'm Todd Unger, AMA's Chief Experience Officer in Chicago.
Dr. Irons, let's start by reviewing this week's numbers—there's a lot of bad news out there. What is happening across the country with new cases and deaths?
Dr. Irons: So thanks very much, Todd. As you know, I always start with the numbers. I think it's important to know what the numbers are, and to also know that they're changing. Although we'd all like the pandemic to be going away, new people are being diagnosed with the condition and people are dying. So the current numbers as of this morning; 2,280,969 people have COVID or have had COVID, and 119,977 have died from it.
As opposed to last week, when we talked about this last week, the change in the new cases and the change in the number of people who have died was staying pretty much the same over the last few weeks. But this week, what we're seeing is a slight increase of the new people being diagnosed, but also a slight decrease in the new deaths every day. So one number is going up, the other numbers going down. The map of the country stays pretty much the same. We're seeing increases in the states in the South, and also the Western part of the country, while we're seeing decreases in the Northeast, in New England, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Illinois, Wisconsin, states that decided to take it a little slower.
Unger: Significant increases in states like Texas.
Dr. Irons: Yeah, absolutely. Texas, Florida, Arizona are seeing a big increase, their hospital capacity is getting tight, in the Carolinas, both North Carolina and South Carolina. And a new state where we're seeing an increase is Arkansas today.
Unger: How do you address the question about is the student more testing or is it more cases? How do you know?
Dr. Irons: So it's probably a combination of both. I think that as testing increases and as more people are motivated to get themselves tested, we are actually going to start identifying people who maybe had mild symptoms or were not as symptomatic, but that's not the entire story here because we're seeing increased numbers of people going to the hospitals. And those were people that would have been identified anyway because of symptoms.
Unger: And I've seen that the hospital capacity in Arizona is starting to show some strain. Is that true?
Dr. Irons: Yeah, it is. I think one of the Health Department officials, I think it was last week or the week before, had started to look at the numbers and was starting to talk to the hospitals about making sure that they were prepared for the increased number of patients that are going to come their way. I heard today, you pick up a lot of these things just through the media, that there were nurses from Colorado who were going over to Arizona to help with the increased need there.
Unger: CDC is suggesting that the toll could rise pretty dramatically over the next few weeks. What do you think of that?
Dr. Irons: Well, I think that we're looking at increased number of cases, and we do know that as people, especially the vulnerable people, people over 65, people with chronic health conditions are exposed some of those patients are going to be in the severe end. Even if you just look at the number of people that are dying, last week it was about 800 to 1,000 a day, today it maybe dropped a little lower, you just multiply that out over the next few weeks. And I think that their estimate is that by mid-July, the death rate could be as high as 145,000. Now that was based on, I think, something like multiple models, all looking at it in different directions and models are only as good as the data that informs them. But we know that the death rate's gone up. The pandemic isn't over, and so we are going to see that.
Unger: So let's talk about some of those recent trends. What's driving them, especially at that state level?
Dr. Irons: So I think several things are driving them. I think that, obviously, as the country is opening up and as people are coming out of shelter at home, this is to be expected. I think we were going to see an increase in new cases, but I think that what we're also seeing is a difference in states that have opened up very rapidly and states like Illinois, like New York and some of the others, I don't want to leave anyone out, who have taken things a little more carefully in making sure that they had enough testing capacity, making sure that their hospitals are resourced and going from phase to phase a little more slowly.
We're starting to see the effect of super spreaders, and an increased number of people catching the virus because of congregating in large settings; bars, karaoke, karaoke bars, large swimming pools. And then I think the other thing that's contributing to it is that I think people were ready to go out and we're not used to having to take care of these precautions. And all you have to do is look out on the street and you can see a lot of people aren't wearing masks, a lot people aren't social distancing.
Unger: Yes. Your number one and two recommendations from last week are wear a mask and continue a physical distancing.
Dr. Irons: Yeah.
Unger: Some pushback, obviously, on wearing masks across the states.
Dr. Irons: Yeah. And some of it is age dependent. I see a lot of older people still wearing masks. I think the message has gotten out that if you're older, if you have chronic health conditions, you're vulnerable, you're in that category. I think that what people don't realize is that while younger people generally have a more mild form of the illness, they can also serve as vectors and transmit the disease to people who are older. And so one of the main reasons that they need to be wearing masks is really to protect others from asymptomatic spread.
Unger: Well, there has been a lot of confusion at some points around the guidance. Do you have any important clarifications to make this week?
Dr. Irons: Not about transmission, we covered that last week. But I'm going to talk a minute about antibody testing. You hear a lot about antibody testing in the media and serology testing, and the AMA several weeks ago came out with a statement of concern. The concern with antibody tests, there are several concerns, one is about false positives. But the other concern is that we don't know yet enough about the disease, that if someone actually has antibodies, that it's going to be protective. And even if it is protective, for how long that protection occurs.
And so what the AMA has said is that antibody testing should only be used for public health surveillance to determine seroprevalence of a condition within a community, to assess people as potential donors for convalescent plasma, or in conjunction with a physician as part of a care plan. People shouldn't use antibody testing to make decisions about not social distancing, not wearing a mask or going back to work in any way. They shouldn't make personal decisions based on it.
Unger: Okay. As we navigate reopening, has there been any progress on developing treatments or on vaccine trials and timing?
Dr. Irons: So not anything new this week. However, Eli Lilly and Regeneron have started doing some clinical trials for monoclonal antibodies. That could be a treatment, if those trials actually show that they are safe and they're efficacious. And in terms of vaccine development, there are three vaccines that are in development. One by Moderna, one by Oxford AstraZeneca, and then a third that are starting clinical trials this summer. And so the hope is that the phase three trials will show that the vaccines are effective. And I think everybody agrees, that's what we're really hoping for is that there is a vaccine. But the monoclonal antibodies, if those trials are successful, could be a bridge to the vaccine.
Unger: Well, lastly, what key messages from the AMA do we want people to hear this week?
Dr. Irons: Oh, the same. The pandemic isn't over. Wear a mask, socially distance and wash your hands.
Unger: Well, we will remember those and please pass those on to your patients and fellow physicians. Thank you again, Dr. Irons for being here today for the weekly update. That's it for today's COVID-19 update. We'll be back tomorrow with another segment. For updated resources on COVID-19 go to ama-assn.org/covid-19. Thanks for joining us today and take care.
Dr. Irons: Great. Thanks very much, Todd.
Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed in this video are those of the participants and/or do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the AMA.
